On a group basis, however, it is relatively easy to test for an optimistic bias. An individual might be quite correct in asserting that his or her chances of experiencing a negative event are less than average. It is usually impossible to demonstrate that an individual's optimistic expectations about the future are unrealistic. Such ideas imply not merely a hopeful outlook on life, but an error in judgment that can be labeled unrealistic optimism. They expect others to be victims of misfortune, not themselves. According to popular belief, people tend to think they are invulnerable. When such lists were read by a second group of students, the amount of unrealistic optimism shown by this second group for the same eight events decreased significantly, although it was not eliminated. Students listed the factors that they thought influenced their own chances of experiencing eight future events. Study 2 tested the idea that people are unrealistically optimistic because they focus on factors that improve their own chances of achieving desirable outcomes and fail to realize that others may have just as many factors in their favor. All predictions were supported, although the pattern of effects differed for positive and negative events. perience, perceived controllability, and stereotype salience would influence the amount of optimistic bias evoked by different events. Cognitive and motivational considerations led to predictions that degree of desirability, perceived probability, personal Overall, they rated their own chances to be above average for positive events and below average for negative events, ps<.001. In Study 1, 258 college students estimated how much their own chances of experiencing 42 events differed from the chances of their classmates. Two studies investigated the tendency of people to be unrealistically optimistic about future life events.
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